Sam Altman 称个人电脑内存是浪费，硬件商晒采购单反驳

以下是视频口播的自动转写，可能有错字。

So sam altman our feared overlord tech oligarch has finally decided to point his finger at you and me. What did we do? Why sam?

Well, he was in a pub with his buddy, you know, the co-founder of stripe just having a pint, you know, like the totally normal person he is.

And then about 29 minutes into this interview, they get onto the subject of memory. And here's what he said from like a global allocation perspective.

Ooh, global allocation. This must be good. Actually, it's quite terrible. Oh no, it's bad to have everybody. Like have a bunch of the world's limited supply of dram sitting in their own computer.

Oh no, he's gonna say it and being used 5% of the time and there it is. That's the part we didn't like. Also he says that you apparently are using your ram 5% of the time so you don't deserve it.

He would make better use of it. So the ram in your pc is a waste apparently and that is because again you're only using a 5% of the time.

But you know what? Here's the thing because this is a guy whose company a year ago this month quite literally went and signed up for 40% of the world's dram supply.

You guys might remember he did that deal with samsung and sk hynix for 900,000 wafers a month which you're doing your math at home is 40% of the global dram supply 40% of everything that the whole planet makes and here we are a year later.

He's sitting in a pub going. Yeah. But but isn't it terrible that you're wasting yours when it could be mine? Now, i pulled our purchase orders at my company met a pcs and i want to show you something.

I want to. Show you what this actually did. I'm gonna put a timeline to it, so stick around if you're interested in seeing that.

Listen, dude, ever since that deal with sk hynix, samsung and and OpenAI, it has been an absolute bloodbath. Ram prices, and by the way, not just ram, anything with memory in it, like phones, consoles, laptops, everything has gone up, and every single company has kind of pointed to the same thing.

They've said, well, it's ai center, uh, data center demand. That's why our memory prices are going up. And you know what?

Memory makers, by the way, used to be companies that didn't make money hand over fist. I'm old enough to remember. They made fairly modest money, and i guess modest is kind of uh depending on who you're talking to.

By the way, sam altman even says this in that exact same interview. He says, you know, for a very long time, if you were a producer of dram, you would invest 20 billion dollars of capex to make 19 billion dollars.

Boom and busts type of thing. He is 100 percent right, because just recently on october 28th, two things happened. It's officially one.

One year since the true explosion of memory prices kind of began, and sk hynix announced their quarter. That's right. Hey, what did they say?

Well, they said 80 percent operating margin is what they're running on 80. The margins absolutely absurd, just absurd. They've got long term deals locking up more than half of everything that they're gonna make through 2028, and they expect the shortage to run through 2030.

So let's think about where we are, because for a year, everybody's been pointing at ai data centers, and now we get to the one year mark, and the person who caused this, you know the guy who took 40 percent of the world's ram supply.

Is pointing his finger at local hardware, at you and i. That uh you know dare to have our own ram. And you know what? I think that's why this whole thing blew up, because really if you think about it, it's not about ram anymore.

I actually made a tweet about this, and uh it kind of blew up, so i'm gonna read it to you. Check it out, let me know if you agree or not.

Owning your own local pc hardware has never been more important. I don't care if you buy it from me or not, it's a fact.

The tech oligarchs. Don't want you to possess components capable of running your own local system. It impedes their ability to control hardware and information.

And you know what? I stand by it, because your pc is kind of the last shred of any ownership that you have. Look, your games, your media, your files, it's quite literally the last bastion of having things that are yours and yours alone that don't require subscription that you can uh i don't know own forever or that can't be turned off.

And i think people are starting to realize it, because if you look at this summer, there were reports that OpenAI was lobbying lawmakers to restrict chinese open weight models.

Those are the types of things that you can download and run on your own machine. Nvidia, microsoft, meta, and uh 22 other companies signed a letter telling washington not to restrict open weights at all.

So that's where the attention is going now. They're doing a lot of lobbying. It's a stronghold in the ai lane that they're trying to get, and i think it's gonna keep happening more and more.

So when the guy who's selling cloud is telling you uh that you're ready. Am is a waste. It is not an argument that is based on utilization.

It's the same guy. His direction hasn't changed. Also, just to let you know, i run a company called meta pcs and i was kind of curious about this.

So i'm going to show you guys exactly what happened here. First, i want to talk about a number that everybody knows 32 gig kit of ddr5 6000 memory.

Normal kit of memory is about 100 bucks last fall and on october 14th, the cheapest one in america, october 14th of this year, cheapest one, 450 dollars here in the us.

Here's mine. I'm going to use an example. We placed a purchase order for some kingston memory, 64 gig kits. Now, we love kingston, we work with them a lot been really good dust.

I feel like they're really good to their customers too. I'm not going to show you what we pay. Now, i'm going to tell you the dates because this is interesting october 1st, 2025.

This is the date of the po. Now, by december of last year, that same part, the price had doubled. So from october 1st to december of the same year, it doubled.

And then we get to january, we place another po, the prices. Triple. So triple by january and the last one that we bought is over four times.

What it was on october 1st, the exact same part number, the same vendor and the same kit of memory normal one 3.6 times price increase.

And by the way, october 1st 2025 that just so happened to also be the day that OpenAI announced the samsung and sk hynix deal.

So the exact same day so you can kind of see what the net effect has been from a practical standpoint from somebody like me who is running a business that has to deal with this fairly regularly.

That's an entire gpu tier gone out of a build that someone could have like allocated to additional hardware.